Kovacic and a Mission That Is Not Impossible: Croatia Face the Final Exam of a Generation

In my Telegram group of three hundred members there is a man named José, who lives in Valencia and sends screenshots of Spanish football news every night. Last night he sent a line from Mateo Kovacic: “We respect Spain, but this is not an impossible mission.” Outside, Valencia rain was falling on the roof tiles. I made another pot of tea, sat down and read that sentence three times.

I remember the summer of 2026. Kovacic was eighteen then, and Spain was lulling all of Europe to sleep with a passing game that looked like embroidery. The boy sat in front of a screen watching Xavi and Iniesta keep the ball, and he can hardly have imagined that more than a decade later he would stand in the middle of a pitch and tell that same football nation they were not as frightening as they looked. I write one heartbeat slower so I do not miss the moment a boot touches grass.

A context that is hard to read

Croatia’s meeting with Spain in the Nations League carries far too much behind it. Spain arrive as European champions after Euro 2026, and as the team that beat Croatia itself in the 2026 Nations League final in Rotterdam on penalties. Croatia come with the record of 2026 World Cup runners-up and third place at the 2026 World Cup — a file any federation would look up at.

But football does not live on files. Kovacic was born in 2026. Modric was born in 2026. The midfield spine that carried a nation of four million people to the last stage of world football is now on the far side of the slope. On the other side, Rodri was born in 2026, Pedri in 2026, Lamine Yamal in 2026. That boy was not old enough to take a driving test when he first played a competitive match for Barcelona.

I have watched a great many training sessions at Mestalla and at the small grounds around Valencia. One thing I have learned and it is almost always true: the gap between two teams is not in the average age on paper, it is in the sixtieth minute. That is when a young midfield still has legs and an old midfield only has a head. Watch who wins there and you know who wins the match.

Spain hold the ball, Croatia hold the rhythm

Croatia cannot play Spain by chasing the ball. They have to take it away. Kovacic himself says so: the job is to take away the opponent’s most powerful weapon, and that weapon is the ball.

It sounds simple. It is not. This Spain is no longer the harmless sideways-passing team of a decade ago. They still keep the ball a lot, but the rhythm has a vertical edge: a pass through the lines and the ball is at a winger’s feet, rather than thirty passes before anyone dares to shoot. Rodri is the pivot. Pedri is the unlocker. Yamal is the finisher. Those three are at three different ages, and that is what Croatia does not have.

Croatia can only win this match in the thirty square metres around the opposition box, not in the middle of the pitch where Rodri stands. And those thirty square metres come from two sources: set pieces, and transitions after winning the ball in their own half.

I have rewatched a lot of clips from Croatia’s games against possession-heavy teams. The problem lies elsewhere, not in the back line. When they win the ball back, their legs cannot carry it far in four seconds. Modric still sees the pass before everyone else, but executing it needs someone running. Kovacic can carry the ball thirty metres, but that is thirty metres per half, not thirty metres per move.

This is where I have to be honest with you: the original report I read, from Goal.com via AFP, had a few details that made me stop. The thirty-nine-match unbeaten run attributed to Spain came with no process data attached — no xG, no PPDA, no possession share. A streak that long usually contains a lot of flat draws and a lot of one-goal wins. In my trade, a number without context is just a flag planted on a map nobody has drawn yet.

Where the majority gets it wrong

People are telling this story as David against Goliath. I do not see it. I see two teams with the same death point: dependence on one man.

Spain without Rodri lose a level in their passing structure — not because the replacements are bad, but because nobody else stands in the right square. Croatia without Modric lose the ability to change tempo, the only thing that keeps them alive when they are being squeezed.

In 2026, in Moscow, I sat in a bar with about fifty Spanish supporters after their 1-0 win over Iran. Nobody in the room talked about the match. Everyone talked about the coach being sacked on the eve of the tournament, and they split into two camps: those who defended him, those who cursed him. I sat there and noted every drop of beer landing on the plastic table. I do not take sides; I only record how the beer falls and how a generation swears.

The lesson I carried from that night into this match is this: the strength of a big team lives in the dressing room, not in the stats sheet. And Croatia, however heavy their legs, remain one of the few teams in the world where every player knows exactly what to do without the ball. That is something no transfer-data model can price, and it is also what makes Kovacic’s remark something more than empty encouragement.

The signal to watch

There are evenings when I choose to stay at the ground instead of going home, and in return I get a story nobody has told. This time the thing I will watch is not the score, but the second half and the first twenty minutes of it. If Croatia keep their rhythm in that window and still put three or four men forward on every counter, they have a chance. If by the sixtieth minute they start sitting deeper and only passing sideways in their own half, the match is over tactically even if the scoreboard is still blank.

And here is the question I leave to my Telegram group, where three hundred people will answer it in three hundred different ways: when the generation of Modric and Kovacic is gone, where does Croatia get the ball back from? And Spain — when Rodri is missing for one important match, are they still themselves?

I do not need the dressing-room door to open, as long as one fan opens up. Send your answers to the group; I read all of them, as always.